Scrutinizing the Spread of Covid-19 in Madagascar

Narison, S.; Maltezos, S.

We scrutinize the evolution of Covid-19 in Madagascar by comparing results from three approaches (cubic polynomial, semi-gaussian and gaussian-like models) which we use to provide an analytical form of the spread of the pandemic. In so doing, we introduce (for the first time) the ratio R^(c,d)_{I/T} of the cumulative and daily numbers of infected persons over the corresponding one of tests which are expected to be less sensitive to the number of the tests because the credibility of the results based only on the absolute numbers often raises some criticisms. We also give and compare the reproduction number R_eff from different approaches and with the ones of some European countries with a small number of population (Greece, Switzerland) and some other African countries. Finally, we show the evolution of the per cent number of cured persons and the total number of deaths from which we deduce some comments on the performance of medical cares.