Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_87
Snippet: Given that an undamped spread of CoV-2 in society leads to high reported incidences N 2 (t), public health measures are attempting to reduce social contacts. The fewer social contacts, the lower infections per day. These contacts are captured by the parameter a in (2). Now assume the number of contacts per individual is restricted in some exogenous manner. Individuals are not allowed to watch soccer matches, go to conferences or move around freel.....
Document: Given that an undamped spread of CoV-2 in society leads to high reported incidences N 2 (t), public health measures are attempting to reduce social contacts. The fewer social contacts, the lower infections per day. These contacts are captured by the parameter a in (2). Now assume the number of contacts per individual is restricted in some exogenous manner. Individuals are not allowed to watch soccer matches, go to conferences or move around freely in their region or country. What is the e¤ect of these measures? We also ask whether it makes a di¤erence whether such measures are taken at the beginning of the outbreak of infections or when the measures are delayed for 1 month.
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