Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_98
Snippet: To be fair, we should stress at this point that the assumption that a shut down reduces the contact rate and thereby the infection rate by 50% is open to empirical investigation. At this point, this is a model assumption for which empirical evidence is still lacking. Hartl et 20 If we had a sequence of shut downs with breaks in between, it would qualitatively look like a combination of the green and the blue curve. The green curve represents a sh.....
Document: To be fair, we should stress at this point that the assumption that a shut down reduces the contact rate and thereby the infection rate by 50% is open to empirical investigation. At this point, this is a model assumption for which empirical evidence is still lacking. Hartl et 20 If we had a sequence of shut downs with breaks in between, it would qualitatively look like a combination of the green and the blue curve. The green curve represents a shut down that ends end of April where the green curve starts rising quickly again. Then when a new shut down takes place as of mid May, the number of sick individuals would follow the blue curve. When the "blue shut down" ends end of May, the number of sick individuals starts rising again as shown by the blue curve.
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