Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng

From March 2, South Korea began to implement large-scale measures to prevent and control the epidemic situation [6] . At present, the epidemic situation in South Korea is basically under control. Our model simulates the actual data well, and it is found through model prediction (Figure 7) . That South Korea will be basically controlled by the end of March. We inferred from the curve and found that there was an infection in South Korea on January 7 (the official broadcast confirmed the diagnosis at January 20). We found that before the control, the basic reproduction number of virus transmission in Korea was 4.2, and the basic reproduction number after control was 0.1. (The basic reproduction number reached 4.2. We suspect that some churches in South Korea ignored the spread of the epidemic in the early stage.) . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.