Prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy by a Gauss Error Function and Monte Carlo simulations

Ignazio Ciufolini; Antonio Paolozzi

In this section we report the results of the fit of the cumulative diagnosed positive cases of Covid-19 in Italy using a function of the type of the Gauss Error Function, given in section 2. We obtained very similar results using a Logistic Function with four parameters (so for the sake of brevity we omit here to report that part). In Fig. 2 is shown the fit with data from February 15, 2020 to March 26, 2020. According to this fit, the flex, i.e. the point where the second derivative of the fit is becoming negative, that is the difference between two successive daily positive cases becomes negative, or in other words the point where there is a deceleration in the number of positive cases, is reached at March, 25, 2020. According to this fit, the date of a substantial reduction in the number of cumulative positive cases in Italy (below 100 cases) is April 22, 2020. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.