Changing trends in COVID-19 mortality

Sidawi, T.; Garau, J.

The mortally of the CoV-SARS-2 and COVID-19 infection reported in different parts of the world vary considerably, change over time and reflect, among others, the important differences in the characteristics of the infected population and the inequality in the access to healthcare. We analyze in this article the mortality of the infection, the mortality rates of the disease the differences and importance between the estimated mortality and the counted mortality and, finally, the mortality commixed between influenza and COVID-19. The global IMR figures that are more in line with reality are approximately 0.7%. The true rate is likely to vary by geographic region. The mortality figures of the first wave were affected by the low diagnostic capacity as diagnostic tests by PCR were highly restricted. There were probably many more patients affected and died by COVID-19 than those reported, leading to an underestimation of mortality, explaining in the Spanish case the discrepancies between the excess mortality figures and the official figures reported by the Ministry of Health from Spain. A provisional summary of global hospital mortality from COVID-19 is 15% to 20%, but this figure can exceed 40% in patients admitted to the ICU. In any case, mortality rates vary between the different cohorts, reflecting differences in the confirmation of infection and identification of cases, different thresholds for hospitalization, and differences in prognosis. Hospital mortality ranges from less than 5% of hospitalized patients under 40 years of age to 35% for patients between 70 and 79 years of age and greater than 60% for patients in the age range of 80 to 89 years. The failure of civil society and its political leaders, by not taking the proper steps seriously to prevent viral transmission, has made nations more vulnerable. While the upcoming distribution of effective vaccines is undoubtedly a factor of hope for 2021, it must be said that this solution will not arrive soon enough to avoid the continued increase in hospitalizations. The need for the population to take disease seriously is becoming more urgent than ever.