Parametric analysis of early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries

Martin Spousta

The features 1 − 3, if confirmed by other studies, open questions for a detailed epidemiological analysis: What is the reason for the existence of a limiting efficiency of applied measures which is indicated by the data? Is it e.g. due to the high-efficiency for the disease to spread inside closed communities? Or is it e.g. due to having a certain fraction of the society failing to follow correctly the measures? The analysis presented here obviously cannot answer these questions. At the same time, it allows us to assess the efficiency of applying the existing measures. For example, if we observe that the parameter b 2 achieves a limiting value of Italy even in countries where more restrictive measures have been applied, such as mandatory usage of masks in Czechia, then this indicates that the use of these measures does not bring further reduction of the spread of the disease 1 .