Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV

Cao, Zhidong; Zhang, Qingpeng; Lu, Xin; Pfeiffer, Dirk; Wang, Lei; Song, Hongbing; Pei, Tao; Jia, Zhongwei; Zeng, Daniel Dajun

Estimating the key epidemiological features of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic proves to be challenging, given incompleteness and delays in early data reporting, in particular, the severe under-reporting bias in the epicenter, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. As a result, the current literature reports widely varying estimates. We developed an alternative geo-stratified debiasing estimation framework by incorporating human mobility with case reporting data in three stratified zones, i.e., Wuhan, Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and mainland China excluding Hubei. We estimated the latent infection ratio to be around 0.12% (18,556 people) and the basic reproduction number to be 3.24 in Wuhan before the city's lockdown on January 23, 2020. The findings based on this debiasing framework have important implications to prioritization of control and prevention efforts.