Author: Robert L Shuler
Title: Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: lmmrnitr_27
Snippet: During "lockdown" the R factor is adjusted according to (a) the ratio of new cases from the 136 previous day, and (b) the increase in herd immunity factor over the previous day. Only when the 137 caseload is rapidly peaking will day to day changes in herd immunity factor be relevant. When an 138 "unlock" policy is established in the predictive model, the R factor is re-established at the initial value 139 reduced by the herd immunity factor. When.....
Document: During "lockdown" the R factor is adjusted according to (a) the ratio of new cases from the 136 previous day, and (b) the increase in herd immunity factor over the previous day. Only when the 137 caseload is rapidly peaking will day to day changes in herd immunity factor be relevant. When an 138 "unlock" policy is established in the predictive model, the R factor is re-established at the initial value 139 reduced by the herd immunity factor. When actual unlock data is available, this will need further 140 adjustment which we do not specify at this time. 141
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