Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia

Djaafara, B. A.; Whittaker, C.; Watson, O. J.; Verity, R.; Brazeau, N. F.; Widyastuti, W.; Oktavia, D.; Adrian, V.; Salama, N.; Bhatia, S.; Nouvellet, P.; Sherrard-Smith, E.; Churcher, T. S.; Surendra, H.; Lina, R. N.; Ekawati, L. L.; Lestari, K. D.; Andrianto, A.; Thwaites, G.; Baird, J. K.; Ghani, A. C.; Elyazar, I. R.; Walker, P. G.

Measuring COVID-19 spread remains challenging in many countries due to testing limitations. In Java, reported cases and deaths increased throughout 2020 despite intensive control measures, particularly within Jakarta and during Ramadan. However, underlying trends are likely obscured by variations in case ascertainment. COVID-19 protocol funerals in Jakarta provide alternative data indicating a substantially higher burden than observed within confirmed deaths. Transmission estimates using this metric follow mobility trends, suggesting earlier and more sustained intervention impact than observed in routine data. Modelling suggests interventions have lessened spread to rural, older communities with weaker healthcare systems, though predict healthcare capacity will soon be exceeded in much of Java without further control. Our results highlight the important role syndrome-based measures of mortality can play in understanding COVID-19 transmission and burden.