Author: Luca Ferretti; Chris Wymant; Michelle Kendall; Lele Zhao; Anel Nurtay; David G Bonsall; Christophe Fraser
Title: Quantifying dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests that epidemic control and avoidance is feasible through instantaneous digital contact tracing Document date: 2020_3_12
ID: bc9retcq_24
Snippet: We calibrated our estimate of the overall amount of transmission based on the epidemic growth rate observed in China not long after the epidemic started. Growth in Western European countries so far appears to be faster, implying either shorter intervals between individuals becoming infected and transmitting onwards, or a higher R0. We illustrate the latter effect in Figs S18 and S19. If this is an accurate picture of viral spread in Europe and no.....
Document: We calibrated our estimate of the overall amount of transmission based on the epidemic growth rate observed in China not long after the epidemic started. Growth in Western European countries so far appears to be faster, implying either shorter intervals between individuals becoming infected and transmitting onwards, or a higher R0. We illustrate the latter effect in Figs S18 and S19. If this is an accurate picture of viral spread in Europe and not an artefact of early growth, epidemic control with only case isolation and quarantining of traced contacts appears implausible in this case, requiring the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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