Author: Mancilla-Galindo, J.; Vera-Zertuche, J. M.; Navarro-Cruz, A. R.; Segura-Badilla, O.; Reyes-Velázquez, G.; Tepepa-López, F. J.; Aguilar-Alonso, P.; Vidal-Mayo, J. de J.; Kammar-GarcÃa, A.
Title: Development and validation of the patient history COVID-19 (PH-Covid19) scoring system: a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19 Cord-id: s21u7j1j Document date: 2020_11_26
ID: s21u7j1j
Snippet: Most of the existing prediction models for COVID-19 lack validation, are inadequately reported or are at high risk of bias, a reason which has led to discourage their use. Few existing models have the potential to be extensively used by healthcare providers in low-resource settings since many require laboratory and imaging predictors. Therefore, we sought to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19, by using demographic and patient history
Document: Most of the existing prediction models for COVID-19 lack validation, are inadequately reported or are at high risk of bias, a reason which has led to discourage their use. Few existing models have the potential to be extensively used by healthcare providers in low-resource settings since many require laboratory and imaging predictors. Therefore, we sought to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19, by using demographic and patient history predictors. We conducted a national retrospective cohort study in two different sets of patients from the Mexican COVID-19 Epidemiologic Surveillance Study. Patients with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and complete unduplicated data were eligible. In total, 83 779 patients were included to develop the scoring system through a multivariable Cox regression model; 100 000, to validate the model. Eight predictors (age, sex, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunosuppression, hypertension, obesity and chronic kidney disease) were included in the scoring system called PH-Covid19 (range of values: −2 to 25 points). The predictive model has a discrimination of death of 0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.796–0.804). The PH-Covid19 scoring system was developed and validated in Mexican patients to aid clinicians to stratify patients with COVID-19 at risk of fatal outcomes, allowing for better and efficient use of resources.
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