Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_17
Snippet: The model builds on a continuous time Markov chain with 4 states. We look at health of an individual i that can be in four states S = f1; 2; 3; 4g. Healthy without infection (s = 1), sick (s = 2), dead (s = 3), healthy with or after infection (s = 4). State 1 is the initial state for all individuals, thus s i (0) = 1 for all i = 1:::N where N is initial population size. 8 There are individual transition rates rs (with r 2 S and s 2 S) between the.....
Document: The model builds on a continuous time Markov chain with 4 states. We look at health of an individual i that can be in four states S = f1; 2; 3; 4g. Healthy without infection (s = 1), sick (s = 2), dead (s = 3), healthy with or after infection (s = 4). State 1 is the initial state for all individuals, thus s i (0) = 1 for all i = 1:::N where N is initial population size. 8 There are individual transition rates rs (with r 2 S and s 2 S) between these states as illustrated in …gure 3.
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