Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_38
Snippet: A standard law of large numbers tells us that individual probabilities also give shares in the population. Hence, when we solve this system, we can think of the time paths of p s (t) also as the shares of society in the di¤erent states. When we compute the expected number of individuals in state s at t, denoted by N s (t) ; we would also obtain an identical ODE system where the probabilities are replaced by the expected numbers. 13 As the intere.....
Document: A standard law of large numbers tells us that individual probabilities also give shares in the population. Hence, when we solve this system, we can think of the time paths of p s (t) also as the shares of society in the di¤erent states. When we compute the expected number of individuals in state s at t, denoted by N s (t) ; we would also obtain an identical ODE system where the probabilities are replaced by the expected numbers. 13 As the interest of our analysis lies in the (expected) number of individuals in certain states (are there su¢ ciently many beds in hospital for severe cases?), we will also refer to the variable p s (t) as the (expected) number N s (t) of individuals.
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