Selected article for: "constant rate and expected number"

Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
  • ID: neba2o7n_47
    Snippet: Before we calibrate our model, we brie ‡y discuss its theoretical predictions. This illustrates the plausibility of our assumptions and also the ‡exibility of the model. Our model consists of the ODE system (7) where we replace the probabilities p s (t) by the expected number N s (t) as described in footnote 13. The sickness rate 12 is from (2), the other arrival rates 14 and 24 are from (4) and (5), respectively. The death rate 23 is a const.....
    Document: Before we calibrate our model, we brie ‡y discuss its theoretical predictions. This illustrates the plausibility of our assumptions and also the ‡exibility of the model. Our model consists of the ODE system (7) where we replace the probabilities p s (t) by the expected number N s (t) as described in footnote 13. The sickness rate 12 is from (2), the other arrival rates 14 and 24 are from (4) and (5), respectively. The death rate 23 is a constant. We start the solution of our model with N ever 2 (0) = N ever observed (0) : We set N 3 (0) = N 4 (0) = 0 and N 1 (0) = N N ever 2 (0). One can easily understand the plausible structure of our ODE system (7). The number N 1 (t) of healthy individuals in state 1 (i.e. the probability or share p 1 (t)) can only fall. Individuals either get sick with rate 12 or get infected without symptoms with rate 14 : Both transitions imply an out ‡ow from state 1. The same is true, mutatis mutandis, for state 3 and 4: For state 3, there are only in ‡ows from state 2 implying that N 3 (t) increases over time. State 4 only experiences in ‡ows from state 1 and 2 implying that N 4 (t) increases over time. The number N 2 (t) of sick individuals can rise or fall, depending on the di¤erence between in ‡ows with 12 and out ‡ows with 23 or 24 .

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • arrival rate and healthy individual: 1, 2, 3
    • arrival rate and sick individual: 1
    • arrival rate and sickness rate: 1, 2
    • death rate and fall rise: 1, 2
    • death rate and healthy individual: 1
    • death rate and model calibrate: 1, 2
    • death rate and model solution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • death rate and ODE system: 1
    • death rate and sickness rate: 1, 2, 3
    • fall rise and healthy individual: 1
    • fall rise and sickness rate: 1, 2
    • healthy individual and sick individual: 1, 2, 3
    • healthy individual and sickness rate: 1, 2
    • ODE system and sickness rate: 1