Author: Monique R. Ambrose; Adam J. Kucharski; Pierre Formenty; Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum; Anne W. Rimoin; James O. Lloyd-Smith
Title: Quantifying transmission of emerging zoonoses: Using mathematical models to maximize the value of surveillance data Document date: 2019_6_19
ID: f14u2sz5_20
Snippet: The country-level, region-level, and district-level models correspond to progressively smaller 347 choices of broader contact zones, while the locality-level model assumes that all instances of 348 human-to-human transmission occur within a locality. We anticipate that assuming an 349 excessively large broader contact zone could result in overestimating R and underestimating λ z if 350 too many spurious human-to-human transmission events are inf.....
Document: The country-level, region-level, and district-level models correspond to progressively smaller 347 choices of broader contact zones, while the locality-level model assumes that all instances of 348 human-to-human transmission occur within a locality. We anticipate that assuming an 349 excessively large broader contact zone could result in overestimating R and underestimating λ z if 350 too many spurious human-to-human transmission events are inferred from pairs of cases that just 351 happen to occur within a generation-time interval of one another, while assuming an 352 inappropriately small broader contact zone could result in the opposite parameter biases if the 353 model is unable to detect actual incidents of human-to-human transmission because the cases 354 occur in different (assumed) broader contact zones. 355 . CC-BY 4.0 International license is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint
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