Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 1 . Estimated multiplicative effects of HCoV-HKU1 incidence (gold), HCoV-OC43 incidence (blue), and seasonal forcing (red) on weekly effective reproduction numbers of HCoV-HKU1 (top panels) and HCoV-OC43 (bottom), with 95% confidence intervals. The point at the start of each season is the estimated baseline for that strain and season compared to the 2014-15 HCoV-HKU1 season. The seasonal forcing spline is set to 1 at the first week of the season (no intercept). . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (B-C) Weekly effective reproduction numbers (Re) estimated using the Wallinga-Teunis method (points) and simulated Re from the best-fit SEIR transmission model (line) for the two common human betacoronaviruses. The opacity of each point is determined by the relative percent ILI x percent positive laboratory tests in that week relative to the maximum percent ILI x percent positive laboratory tests for that strain across the study period, which reflects uncertainty in the Re estimate; estimates are more certain (darker points) in weeks with higher incidence.