Modelling the effects of the contaminated environments on tuberculosis in Jiangsu, China

Cai, Yongli; Zhao, Shi; Niu, Yun; Peng, Zhihang; Wang, Kai; He, Daihai; Wang, Weiming

Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases in Jiangsu, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on the TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects: Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text] , and prove that [Formula: see text] can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average [Formula: see text] is [Formula: see text] and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease and will persist for a long time. As a consequence, our work suggests that, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.