Author: LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng
Title: Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_18
ID: nf51yjmj_32
Snippet: Many studies have shown that virological transmission usually satisfies the Gaussian distribution, so this article uses the Gaussian distribution to analyze the transmission of viruses [9] [10] . When we use Gaussian distribution to simulate, the main influence is the average value, but the standard deviation has little influence, so we will take the best accord with the objective fact variance to simulate. The basic reproduction number is the nu.....
Document: Many studies have shown that virological transmission usually satisfies the Gaussian distribution, so this article uses the Gaussian distribution to analyze the transmission of viruses [9] [10] . When we use Gaussian distribution to simulate, the main influence is the average value, but the standard deviation has little influence, so we will take the best accord with the objective fact variance to simulate. The basic reproduction number is the number of people infected by a patient during the average illness period when all are susceptible at the morbidity of the disease. The Gaussian distribution function of D1~N(x1,y1) is used to represent the propagation ability of the virus. This formula indicates that a single infected person can infect x1 person on average in the first stage. At this stage, x1 has a value range of (1,+ ∞), and a standard deviation of y1=1.5.
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