Optimal adaptive testing for epidemic control: combining molecular and serology tests

Acemoglu, D.; Fallah, A.; Giometto, A.; Huttenlocher, D.; Ozdaglar, A.; Parise, F.; Pattathil, S.

The COVID-19 crisis highlighted the importance of non-medical interventions, such as testing and isolation of infected individuals, in the control of epidemics. Here, we show how to minimize testing needs while maintaining the number of infected individuals below a desired threshold. We find that the optimal policy is adaptive, with testing rates that depend on the epidemic state. Additionally, we show that such epidemic state is difficult to infer with molecular tests alone, which are highly sensitive but have a short detectability window. Instead, we propose the use of baseline serology testing, which is less sensitive but detects past infections, for the purpose of state estimation. Validation of such combined testing approach with a stochastic model of epidemics shows significant cost savings compared to non-adaptive testing strategies that are the current standard for COVID-19.