Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_102
Snippet: In a perfect world with complete knowledge about the number of sick individuals, the long run infection rate ; the individual risk r to turn sick from an infection and other parameters employed in this model, policy makers should therefore choose the optimal point in time for an intervention. In the world we live in, this information is not available, neither from a medical, nor from a statistical and data processing perspective. The …nding nev.....
Document: In a perfect world with complete knowledge about the number of sick individuals, the long run infection rate ; the individual risk r to turn sick from an infection and other parameters employed in this model, policy makers should therefore choose the optimal point in time for an intervention. In the world we live in, this information is not available, neither from a medical, nor from a statistical and data processing perspective. The …nding nevertheless makes the strong point that policy interventions should be conditioned on the current situation in a country or region. Ideas that policy measures must be the same for all regions in Germany at all points in time are strongly contradicted. 22
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