Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch
Title: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: f4hj35dr_13
Snippet: iii) If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent, the virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak. Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear (Fig 3C) . The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCo.....
Document: iii) If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent, the virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak. Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear (Fig 3C) . The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 would be possible if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70% cross immunity against them, which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1.
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