Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch

Our findings indicate key pieces of information that are still required to know how the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will unfold. Most crucially, longitudinal serological studies from patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 could indicate whether or not immunity wanes, and at what rate. According to our projections, this rate is the key modulator of the total SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the coming years. While long-lasting immunity would lead to lower overall incidence of infection, it would also complicate vaccine efficacy trials by contributing to low case numbers when those trials are conducted, as occurred with Zika virus (31) . Furthermore, our findings underscore the need to maintain SARS-CoV-2 surveillance even if the outbreak appears to die out after the first pandemic wave, as a resurgence in infection could be possible as late as 2025.