Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch
Title: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: f4hj35dr_3
Snippet: To quantify the relative contribution of immunity versus seasonal forcing on the transmission dynamics of the betacoronaviruses, we adopted a regression model (22) that expressed the effective reproduction number for each strain (HKU1 and OC43) as the product of a baseline transmissibility constant (related to the basic reproduction number and the proportion of the population susceptible at the start of the season), the depletion of susceptibles .....
Document: To quantify the relative contribution of immunity versus seasonal forcing on the transmission dynamics of the betacoronaviruses, we adopted a regression model (22) that expressed the effective reproduction number for each strain (HKU1 and OC43) as the product of a baseline transmissibility constant (related to the basic reproduction number and the proportion of the population susceptible at the start of the season), the depletion of susceptibles due to infection with the same strain, the depletion of susceptibles due to infection with the other strain, and a spline to capture further unexplained seasonal variation in transmission strength (seasonal forcing). These covariates were able to explain most of the observed variability in the effective reproduction numbers (adjusted R 2 : 74.2%). The estimated multiplicative effects of . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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