Evaluate the timing of resumption of business for the states of New York, New Jersey and California via a pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission model of COVID-19

Tian, T.; Tan, J.; Jiang, Y.; Wang, X.; Zhang, H.

The United States has the highest numbers of confirmed cases and death of COVID-19, where confirmed cases took up nearly half in the hot spot states of New York, New Jersey and California. The workforce in these states was required to work from home except for essential services to minimize the risk of the spread of COVID-19. Premature reopening of economy will lead to broader spread of COVID-19, while the opposite situation would cause greater loss of economy. We proposed an epidemic compartmental model in considering the pre-symptomatic transmission and asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19, to estimate the numbers of unidentified infected cases and simulate the possible outcomes of resumption of economy at different forthcoming Mondays. The states of New York and New Jersey were not recommended to reopen the economy before May 18 since it may increase 22.44% and 60.18% for the numbers of cumulative confirmed cases if the second wave of the infection would happen, respectively. While that may be feasible for California to reopen business on May 11 if appropriate control measures for prevention of the second wave of the infection are implemented, because of the less benefit for delaying reopening the economy and the relatively smaller magnitude of Outbreak of COVID-19.