Selected article for: "cross immunity and immunity duration"
Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Edward Goldstein; Yonatan H. Grad; Marc Lipsitch
Title: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period
  • Document date: 2020_3_6
    • ID: f4hj35dr_6
    Snippet: We integrated these findings into a two-strain ordinary differential equation (ODE) susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model to describe the transmission dynamics of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (Fig S3) . The model provided a good fit to both the weekly incidence proxies for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 and to the estimated weekly effective reproduction numbers (Fig 2) . According to the best-fit model parameters, the basic repr.....
    Document: We integrated these findings into a two-strain ordinary differential equation (ODE) susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model to describe the transmission dynamics of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (Fig S3) . The model provided a good fit to both the weekly incidence proxies for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 and to the estimated weekly effective reproduction numbers (Fig 2) . According to the best-fit model parameters, the basic reproduction number for HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 varies between 1.4 in the summer and 2 in the winter, the duration of immunity for both strains is about 40 weeks, and each strain induces cross-immunity against the other, though the cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 infection induces against HCoV-HKU1 is stronger than the reverse.

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