Author: Spencer Woody; Mauricio Garcia Tec; Maytal Dahan; Kelly Gaither; Spencer Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott
Title: Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 87lxnslh_2
Snippet: The IHME approach departs from classic epidemiological modeling. Rather than using systems of equations to project the person-to-person transmission of the virus, the model postulates that COVID-19 deaths will rise exponentially and then decline in a pattern that roughly resembles a bell curve (i.e., normal distribution). The model assumes that the shape of the curve will be curtailed by social distancing measures. Key inputs driving this compone.....
Document: The IHME approach departs from classic epidemiological modeling. Rather than using systems of equations to project the person-to-person transmission of the virus, the model postulates that COVID-19 deaths will rise exponentially and then decline in a pattern that roughly resembles a bell curve (i.e., normal distribution). The model assumes that the shape of the curve will be curtailed by social distancing measures. Key inputs driving this component of the IHME model include the reported dates of state-wide shelter-in-place orders and shapes of COVID-19 epidemiological curves observed in Chinese and European cities following the implementation of similar measures.
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