Author: LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng
Title: Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_18
ID: nf51yjmj_33
Snippet: With the development of a series of effective measures, the daily increase of the number of infected people also decreased to a certain extent, and the transmission ability of the disease in the population decreased. For the ability to spread disease through this process, we still use the Gaussian distribution. When a single infected person at this stage is able to infect an average of x2 individuals, the formula for the capacity to transmit is, .....
Document: With the development of a series of effective measures, the daily increase of the number of infected people also decreased to a certain extent, and the transmission ability of the disease in the population decreased. For the ability to spread disease through this process, we still use the Gaussian distribution. When a single infected person at this stage is able to infect an average of x2 individuals, the formula for the capacity to transmit is, D2~N(x2,y2). At this stage, the value range of x2 is general (0,1], standard deviation of x2 is y2=2*x2. Because the medical condition of affected area and the degree of people's activity intention directly decide the basic regeneration number in this stage. The better the health care, the less active the population, the smaller the x2.
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