Author: Emma Southall; Michael J. Tildesley; Louise Dyson
Title: Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data: application to epidemiological incidence data Document date: 2020_4_2
ID: dp4qv77q_72
Snippet: Overall, our study suggests that a robust indicator is one that shares a highly 513 predictive time series trait (|AU C − 0.5| ≈ 0.5) amongst all three data types, even with 514 inconsistent trends (increasing or decreasing). Therefore, we suggest that variance and 515 coefficient of variation are overall good indicators due to their high predictive power in 516 all cases. Coefficient of variation is a robust indicator for disease elimination.....
Document: Overall, our study suggests that a robust indicator is one that shares a highly 513 predictive time series trait (|AU C − 0.5| ≈ 0.5) amongst all three data types, even with 514 inconsistent trends (increasing or decreasing). Therefore, we suggest that variance and 515 coefficient of variation are overall good indicators due to their high predictive power in 516 all cases. Coefficient of variation is a robust indicator for disease elimination since the 517 trend is similar between different types of data ( Fig. 3 (a) ) and S11 Fig. However 518 discrepancies are demonstrated when considering opposite disease thresholds as shown 519 with disease emergence (Fig. 3(b) ) which has a decreasing trend for CV and performs 520 less well with disease prevalence data.
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