Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

The COVID-19 outbreak in the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro has started in their capital city in the end of February 2020, and spread to other cities on the metropolitan region and countryside. However, many regions are yet to suffer from the pandemic, so pointing out possible focus of future infections provides strategic informations to public authorities act on to avoid the spread of the disease. These focus may be identified by studying the pattern of movement from the infected regions (capital cities) to the countryside, by identifying common movement patterns. Observe that the geographical distance between cities is not enough to determine these focus, as there are other factors which drive mobility within the states, specially of economic nature, which make movement to more developed cities far away more likely.