Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

As mentioned by Brockman [6, 8] , while the time evolution of the epidemics is frequently modeled in the literature by dynamical differential equations or time series [1, 7] , the modelling depends most on the scale used. For large scales, such as big countries, continents and the whole world, available airport data is enough to give us reliable predictions. As mentioned, [4] has some interesting results for the dissemination of the COVID-19 in Brazil based on airport network. But once the epidemics reaches a primary local region, it is of relevance to anticipate how the dissemination will take place locally, so local transit and regional road movement play an important role in the modelling, and mobile data provide a reliable characterization of such movements.