Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

In this report, we measure the mobility in each day of March 2020 between the cities within each state, seeking to identify the most common mobility patterns in order to predict possible future focus of infection. We consider the movement on March 2020 as these were the days which followed the first infections in Brazil, when isolation measures were implemented. To predict theses focus, we analyse the raw mobility data and simulate spatial models of disease spread to predict the locations where the disease is more likely to spread first. This study seeks to not only subsidize public discussions about the allocation of resources and enforcement of isolation measures, but also to be the base of a next study, addressing population dynamics together with available public health data, providing risk assessments and forecasts.