Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 compatible within the limits of the current knowledge about the outbreak. The implications of our work are that: 1) reductions in prevalence need not be attributable to successful interventions, but could be due to seasonal variation in transmissibility, 2) sub-population dynamics can differ greatly, meaning that case count trajectories in one country should be used cautiously to inform projections in a second country, even in the same climate zone, 3) seasonal variation might slow down a pandemic and thereby provide a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems world-wide by scaling up capacity for care and diagnostics, and potentially through rapid development of antivirals and vaccine, and 4) after several years SARS-CoV-2 could develop into an endemic seasonal CoV similar to the transition of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza virus into a seasonal influenza virus.