Stability analysis and optimal control of covid-19 with convex incidence rate in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (Pakistan)

Khan, Amir; Zarin, Rahat; Hussain, Ghulam; Ahmad, Noor Atinah; Mohd, Mohd Hafiz; Yusuf, Abdullahi

The dynamic of covid-19 epidemic model with a convex incidence rate is studied in this article. First, we formulate the model without control and study all the basic properties and results including local and global stability. We show the global stability of disease free equilibrium using the method of Lyapunov function theory while for disease endemic, we use the method of geometrical approach. Furthermore, we develop a model with suitable optimal control strategies. Our aim is to minimize the infection in the host population. In order to do this, we use two control variables. Moreover, sensitivity analysis complemented by simulations are performed to determine how changes in parameters affect the dynamical behavior of the system. Taking into account the central manifold theory the bifurcation analysis is also incorporated. The numerical simulations are performed in order to show the feasibility of the control strategy and effectiveness of the theoretical results.