The expediency of local modelling to aid national responses to SARS-CoV-2.

Groen, B. M.; Turner, P.; Lacey, P.

Background: With the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic gripping most of the globe, healthcare and economic recovery strategies are being explored currently as a matter of urgency. Methods: We adopted the epidemiological model which informs United Kingdom government's national policy on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and used it in a local context and show how projections in terms of presentations of symptomatic patients in a variety of settings differ depending on local demographics. Setting: England, United Kingdom, population level modelled 3.2m Results: We clearly demonstrate that there is significant difference in the way the modelling behaves in terms of potential subsequent waves for levels of demand on the health and care systems. This provides evidence of differing timeline of peak demands and clearly shows varying levels of demand throughout the four modelled sub-geographies. Conclusions: The study results clearly outline the expediency of national modelling being adopted to reflect local health and care systems. We urge readers to ensure that any national policy is appropriately adopted to suit local health and care systems. In addition, we share our methodology to ensure other professionals could replicate this study elsewhere. Background National governments are forced to take urgent action with national policy restricting social interactions and businesses to temporarily close. In order to fully understand how the limited health and care resources could be targeted in response to this pandemic, we need to create a thorough understanding of the impact of national policy on local health and care systems. The guiding principle and understanding here is that health and care services are provided locally not nationally, not in aggregate but to individuals. Therefore, we conducted a study using existing models which are used to inform national policy and adapted these to consider local nuances to see whether such projective model would behave differently; showing how projections in terms of presentations of symptomatic patients in a variety of settings differ depending on local demographics.