Forecasting COVID-19 cases using Machine Learning models

Tian, Y.; Luthra, I.; Zhang, X.

As of April 26, 2020, more than 2,994,958 cases of COVID-19 infection have been confirmed globally, raising a challenging public health issue. A predictive model of the disease would help allocate medical resources and determine social distancing measures more efficiently. In this paper, we gathered case data from Jan 22, 2020 to April 14 for 6 countries to compare different models' proficiency in COVID-19 cases prediction. We assessed the performance of 3 machine learning models including hidden Markov chain model (HMM), hierarchical Bayes model, and long-short-term-memory model (LSTM) using the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The LSTM model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of incidents cases in 4 countries. In contrast, hierarchical Bayes model provided the most realistic prediction with the capability of identifying a plateau point in the incidents growth curve.