Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics

Christopher Bronk Ramsey

These estimates are based on a whole population group, and more granular information could be used to inform p ij , since this will also depend on local infection rates over time: it would make sense to use local case rates rather than just national. Another key thing to consider is that it is the average interaction rate over a time period relevant to the incubation that is relevant. Temporary high interaction levels, for example at a single event, will be strongly mitigated if combined with the periods before and after have much lower interaction rates. On the other hand, residential events with intense interaction over several days will probably have the greatest impact on raising R eff .