Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico

Carrillo-Vega, María Fernanda; Salinas-Escudero, Guillermo; García-Peña, Carmen; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis Miguel; Parra-Rodríguez, Lorena

BACKGROUND: Due to a high prevalence of chronic non-degenerative diseases, it is suspected that COVID 19 poses a high risk of fatal complications for the Mexican population. The present study aims to estimate the risk factors for hospitalization and death in the Mexican population infected by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the publicly available data released by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health (Secretaría de Salud, SSA). All records of positive SARS-CoV-2 cases were included. Two multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the association between hospitalization and mortality, with other covariables. Data on 10,544 individuals (57.68% men), with mean age 46.47±15.62, were analyzed. Men were about 1.54 times more likely to be hospitalized than women (p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.37–1.74); individuals aged 50–74 and ≥74 were more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 25–49 (OR 2.05, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.81–2.32, and OR 3.84, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.90–5.15, respectively). People with hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were more likely to be hospitalized than people without these comorbidities (p<0.01). Men had more risk of death in comparison to women (OR = 1.53, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.30–1.81) and individuals aged 50–74 and ≥75 were more likely to die than people aged 25–49 (OR 1.96, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.63–2.34, and OR 3.74, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.80–4.98, respectively). Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes presented in combination conveyed a higher risk of dying in comparison to not having these diseases (OR = 2.10; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.50–2.93). Hospitalization, intubation and pneumonia entail a higher risk of dying (OR 5.02, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.88–6.50; OR 4.27, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.26–5.59, and OR = 2.57; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.11–3.13, respectively). Our study’s main limitation is the lack of information on mild (asymptomatic) or moderate cases of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The present study points out that in Mexico, where an important proportion of the population has two or more chronic conditions simultaneously, a high mortality rate is a serious risk for those infected by SARS-CoV-2.