Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_109
Snippet: Concerning short-run e¤ect, we see that in the case of no intervention (or interventions that do not have an e¤ect), the peak comes earlier for N 2 (t). The red curve in …gure 9 peaks in mid April in contrast to early to mid May for the higher long-run infection rate of …gure 8. The e¤ect of the shut down currently in place looks qualitatively similar to the e¤ect when is higher. By contrast, the extended shut down in …gure 9 does not d.....
Document: Concerning short-run e¤ect, we see that in the case of no intervention (or interventions that do not have an e¤ect), the peak comes earlier for N 2 (t). The red curve in …gure 9 peaks in mid April in contrast to early to mid May for the higher long-run infection rate of …gure 8. The e¤ect of the shut down currently in place looks qualitatively similar to the e¤ect when is higher. By contrast, the extended shut down in …gure 9 does not display a strong rise in growth rates of N 2 (t) once it is over. It is directly followed by the decline in the number of sick individuals.
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