Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_115
Snippet: We also …nd, however, that there is an optimal point in time when an intervention, e¤ective for a …xed length of time (say, 3 weeks), should start. When the intervention starts too early, there are "too many" healthy individuals left at the end of the intervention. The rise in the number of sick individuals would be accelerated. When the intervention starts later, the number of sick individuals is larger initially. Once the intervention is o.....
Document: We also …nd, however, that there is an optimal point in time when an intervention, e¤ective for a …xed length of time (say, 3 weeks), should start. When the intervention starts too early, there are "too many" healthy individuals left at the end of the intervention. The rise in the number of sick individuals would be accelerated. When the intervention starts later, the number of sick individuals is larger initially. Once the intervention is over, there are, as a consequence, not so many healthy individuals left and the peak is smaller. While implementing optimal schemes for real world societies probably requires too much information, this …nding points towards implementing policy measures which are contingent on the current situation (number of sick individuals per capita) of a region or country.
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