Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_27
Snippet: The infection rate is zero initially at t < 0: Illustrated for Germany in a somewhat too simple way but perfectly …ne for our projection, = 0 on 23 February 2020 (and before) when the number of reported sick individuals was zero. On 24 February 2020, a number of N 2 (0) = 16 are introduced into the system and infections and sickness start occurring. The sickness rate 12 (t) is zero also in the long-run when this infection rate equals the long-r.....
Document: The infection rate is zero initially at t < 0: Illustrated for Germany in a somewhat too simple way but perfectly …ne for our projection, = 0 on 23 February 2020 (and before) when the number of reported sick individuals was zero. On 24 February 2020, a number of N 2 (0) = 16 are introduced into the system and infections and sickness start occurring. The sickness rate 12 (t) is zero also in the long-run when this infection rate equals the long-run infection rate, which we denote by : This captures the above mentioned fact that some individuals will never be infected during the epidemic and will always remain in state 1, lim t!1 N 1 (t) > 0:
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