Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_83
Snippet: As no information is available at this point about the share of individuals that are already immune to CoV-2 in Germany, one might well hope that Germany is heading towards a Hubei long-run equilibrium. As data quality was often argued to be an issue, our long-run ratio r with r = 0:01 would correspond to 6.7 in 1000 individuals that were sick at some point in the long-run (N ever 2 ). This would imply that -in the case of no public intervention .....
Document: As no information is available at this point about the share of individuals that are already immune to CoV-2 in Germany, one might well hope that Germany is heading towards a Hubei long-run equilibrium. As data quality was often argued to be an issue, our long-run ratio r with r = 0:01 would correspond to 6.7 in 1000 individuals that were sick at some point in the long-run (N ever 2 ). This would imply that -in the case of no public intervention -the peak in the number of sick individuals would only be around 180 thousand individuals (as the …rst row of table 3 shows). The blue time path of N 2 (t) of …gure 7 would be relevant.
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