Author: Lee Worden; Rae Wannier; Nicole A. Hoff; Kamy Musene; Bernice Selo; Mathias Mossoko; Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy; Jean Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum; George W. Rutherford; Thomas M. Lietman; Anne W. Rimoin; Travis C. Porco; J. Daniel Kelly
Title: Real-time projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo Document date: 2018_11_5
ID: 96arnumb_1_1
Snippet: contacts of infective individuals, or by other causes. We incorporated this 97 pattern into our model by estimating an initial reproduction number R initial and 98 quenching rate Ï„ for each outbreak by fitting an exponentially quenched curve to the 99 outbreak's estimates of R by day d (Fig S2 in S1 Supporting Information), and used 100 these pairs of parameters, one from each past outbreak, to construct a joint distribution 101 of initial repro.....
Document: contacts of infective individuals, or by other causes. We incorporated this 97 pattern into our model by estimating an initial reproduction number R initial and 98 quenching rate Ï„ for each outbreak by fitting an exponentially quenched curve to the 99 outbreak's estimates of R by day d (Fig S2 in S1 Supporting Information), and used 100 these pairs of parameters, one from each past outbreak, to construct a joint distribution 101 of initial reproduction numbers and quenching rates for outbreak simulation. 102 We simulated EBOV transmission using a stochastic branching process model in 103 which the number of secondary cases caused by any given primary case is drawn from a 104 negative binomial distribution, whose mean is the reproduction number R as a function 105 of day of the outbreak, and variance is controlled by a dispersion parameter k [32, 33]. 106
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- initial reproduction number and outbreak simulation: 1
- initial reproduction number and past outbreak: 1
- initial reproduction number and quenching rate: 1
- initial reproduction number and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75
- initial reproduction number and secondary case: 1, 2
- initial reproduction number and secondary case number: 1, 2
- initial reproduction number and stochastic branching process model: 1
- joint distribution and outbreak simulation: 1
- joint distribution and past outbreak: 1
- joint distribution and quenching rate: 1
- joint distribution and reproduction number: 1
- negative binomial distribution and outbreak day: 1
- negative binomial distribution and outbreak simulation: 1, 2
- negative binomial distribution and primary case: 1, 2, 3, 4
- negative binomial distribution and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
- negative binomial distribution and secondary case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- negative binomial distribution and secondary case number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- secondary case and stochastic branching process model: 1, 2
- secondary case number and stochastic branching process model: 1, 2
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date