Stochastic modeling and estimation of COVID-19 population dynamics

Yanev, Nikolay M.; Stoimenova, Vessela K.; Atanasov, Dimitar V.

The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is intended to use only the observed daily statistics to estimate the main parameter of the contamination and to give a prediction of the mean value of the non-observed population of the contaminated individuals. This is a serious advantage in comparison with other more complicated models where the observed official statistics are not sufficient. In this way the specific development of the Covid-19 epidemics is considered for different countries.