Within Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Humans: Modeling Immune Responses and Antiviral Treatments

Ghosh, Indrajit

In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic, resulting in about 3–5% mortality. Mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights about transmission patterns and targets for drug development. In this study, we propose a within-host mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection considering innate and adaptive immune responses. We analyze the equilibrium points of the proposed model and obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number. We then numerically show the existence of a transcritical bifurcation. The proposed model is calibrated to real viral load data of two COVID-19 patients. Using the estimated parameters, we perform global sensitivity analysis with respect to the peak of viral load. Finally, we study the efficacy of antiviral drugs and vaccination on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results suggest that blocking the virus production from infected cells can be an effective target for antiviral drug development. Finally, it is found that vaccination is more effective intervention as compared to the antiviral treatments.