Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19

Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 16.20068387 doi: medRxiv preprint into ≈ 5000 to 10000 less infected people. Even a conservative estimation of the disease death rate results in a large impact of different policies on the population. On the other hand, when asymptomatics make for the majority of the infections, as recent data seems to suggest, the release of NPI even after a long time is predicted to cause a strong resurgence and a large impact, as measured by the cumulative incidence, and a large second wave of infection is observed. When taken together, the results in Figures 1 through 4 show the need to obtain precise information about the fraction of the population which is actually currently infected with the disease before any release of control can be decided.