Author: Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco
Title: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 6okpsuvu_22
Snippet: In conclusion, we have described the combined effect of release NPI and testing strategies as applied to the current COVID19 epidemic. Our simulations clearly show that, absent testing of a significant fraction of the population (both symptomatic and asymptomatic), early release of NPI will cause a resurgence of the epidemic. This suggests the fundamental role of widespread testing in any policy of NPI release. As suggested by recent publications.....
Document: In conclusion, we have described the combined effect of release NPI and testing strategies as applied to the current COVID19 epidemic. Our simulations clearly show that, absent testing of a significant fraction of the population (both symptomatic and asymptomatic), early release of NPI will cause a resurgence of the epidemic. This suggests the fundamental role of widespread testing in any policy of NPI release. As suggested by recent publications [18] , when universal testing is administered, asymptomatic individuals are found to make up for a large majority of all identified cases. As such, widespread testing policies must target this population rather than only individuals with evidence of influenza-like or SARS-like symptoms.
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