Author: Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon
Title: Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 5xfgmi2n_46
Snippet: In order for restriction of exposure time to be effective, probability of infection must drop appreciably when exposure time is reduced. This requires a low average infection probability per unit time per social contact, q, so that probability of infection, , does not come close to 1 xp(− T ) p = 1 − e q for exposure time T on the order of days. For COVID-19, an infected person infects on the order of R=3 people on average during the infectio.....
Document: In order for restriction of exposure time to be effective, probability of infection must drop appreciably when exposure time is reduced. This requires a low average infection probability per unit time per social contact, q, so that probability of infection, , does not come close to 1 xp(− T ) p = 1 − e q for exposure time T on the order of days. For COVID-19, an infected person infects on the order of R=3 people on average during the infectious period of mean duration D=4 days. If the mean number of social contacts is C, which is estimated at greater than 10, one has q~DR/C<0.1/day. Thus infection probability on the scale of hours to a few days is approximately linear with exposure time:
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