Author: Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon
Title: Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 5xfgmi2n_46
Snippet: In order for restriction of exposure time to be effective, probability of infection must drop appreciably when exposure time is reduced. This requires a low average infection probability per unit time per social contact, q, so that probability of infection, , does not come close to 1 xp(− T ) p = 1 − e q for exposure time T on the order of days. For COVID-19, an infected person infects on the order of R=3 people on average during the infectio.....
Document: In order for restriction of exposure time to be effective, probability of infection must drop appreciably when exposure time is reduced. This requires a low average infection probability per unit time per social contact, q, so that probability of infection, , does not come close to 1 xp(− T ) p = 1 − e q for exposure time T on the order of days. For COVID-19, an infected person infects on the order of R=3 people on average during the infectious period of mean duration D=4 days. If the mean number of social contacts is C, which is estimated at greater than 10, one has q~DR/C<0.1/day. Thus infection probability on the scale of hours to a few days is approximately linear with exposure time:
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- average infection and infected person: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- average infection and infection probability: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24
- average infection and infectious period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- average infection probability and infection probability: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
- average infection probability and infectious period: 1, 2, 3
- average people and day order: 1
- average people and exposure time: 1, 2
- average people and infected person: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
- average people and infection probability: 1, 2
- average people and infectious period: 1, 2, 3
- average people order and day order: 1
- day order and exposure time: 1, 2
- day order and infected person: 1
- exposure time and infected person: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- exposure time and infection probability: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- exposure time and infectious period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- exposure time reduce and infection probability: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date