A feasible and more efficient SARS-Cov-2 vaccine allocation to states and counties in the USA

Ives, A. R.; Bozzuto, C.

While discussion of vaccine allocation has centered around who should be prioritized (e.g., health care personnel and the elderly), we argue that vaccines should also be allocated to jurisdictions (e.g., counties within the USA) with the greatest immunization thresholds needed for ending the epidemic. At the current rate of vaccine distribution (March 15, 2021), universal herd immunity in the USA could be reached in roughly 4.5 months. However, distributing vaccines according to where the virus spreads more easily (dense counties with high R0 values), herd immunity would be reached simultaneously in all counties almost two months earlier and would require roughly 40% fewer vaccine doses. Furthermore, under the current distribution strategy densely populated counties would reach herd immunity last, with negative epidemiological and socio-economic consequences. In sum, it would be more fair and efficient to distribute vaccines to jurisdictions that need them most to reach herd immunity.